Link Between Opaque Cloud Properties and Atmospheric Dynamics in Observations and Simulations of Current Climate in the Tropics, and Impact on Future Predictions

Using spaceborne lidar observations and reanalyzes (2008–2014), we relate the vertical wind speed at 500 hPa (ω500), indicator of atmospheric circulation, to properties opaque clouds (altitude cover) Cloud Radiative Effect (CRE) in Tropics. We confront those with simulations by IPSL-CM6 CESM1 climate models using early 21st century emissions. Both overestimate average cloud cover. puts high too (+2 km), especially ascendance. overestimates intermediate cover underestimates small large covers. agree that behave differently above (strong subsidence) or below (weak subsidence ascendance) 20 hPa/day. In future (2089–2095), variables affected biases current are notable changes: even higher km) while 30% decreases increases CESM1. predict very little change net CRE future. find predicted changes can be regionally driven dynamic thermodynamic changes, depending on relationship between altitude ω500 model. Overall, most due property dynamics.